The first debate of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, featuring Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, has sparked considerable discussion and analysis among political analysts and betting markets. According to prediction markets on Polymarket, Harris seems to have gained the upper hand in the debate, as evidenced by a slight increase in her odds during the event. However, when it comes to the broader context of the upcoming election, both candidates remain remarkably close in the prediction markets, indicating a highly competitive race ahead.

Despite the intensity of the debate, it is noteworthy that significant topics such as cryptocurrency policy were notably absent from the discussion. This omission is puzzling, given the growing importance of digital currencies in the American economy. The lack of dialogue on this topic raises questions about the candidates’ stances on technology and finance, which are increasingly relevant in today’s political landscape.

Highlights from the Debate

• Trade Deficit Discussion: In a heated exchange, Trump defended his administration’s trade policies, claiming he would implement “substantial tariffs” to bolster the economy. In response, Harris criticized Trump for leaving the Biden administration with a substantial trade deficit, which she referred to as “one of the highest we’ve seen in history.”
• Fact-Checking Trump’s Claims: Fact-checkers, including CNN reporter Daniel Dale, noted that Trump made several inaccurate statements during the debate. One particularly notable false claim involved migrants allegedly “eating the dogs” in Springfield, Ohio, which was debunked by credible sources.
• Endorsements and Public Reactions: Post-debate, musician Taylor Swift publicly endorsed Harris, stating her belief that Harris “fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion.” Such endorsements can significantly influence public perception and voter sentiment.

The Role of Prediction Markets

Polymarket experienced a surge in activity during and after the debate, highlighting the increasing engagement of bettors in the political landscape. Before the debate commenced, the market estimated a 30% chance of a handshake between the two candidates, which indeed occurred—marking a notable moment as it had not been seen since the first debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Interestingly, bettors displayed skepticism regarding the likelihood of cryptocurrency being mentioned during the debate. The probabilities were set at 26% for Trump and 14% for Harris, reflecting a broader concern that crucial economic issues related to digital currencies might not receive adequate attention in political discourse.

One bettor, known by the handle “trumpisreal,” successfully wagered over $10,000 in USDC by predicting Trump would mention “Springfield” and “Cat,” a reference to the controversial claim about Haitian migrants. The debate moderator clarified that city officials had stated there was no evidence to support such claims, emphasizing the role of accurate information in political debates.

Implications for Future Polling

As the debate concluded, bettors on Polymarket expressed a high level of confidence in Harris’s performance, estimating a 98% chance that polls would declare her the winner of the debate. Furthermore, there was a 59% likelihood that she would emerge as the favorite in the Polymarket election contract the following day. This prediction hinges on the outcomes of polling data, specifically an Ipsos/538 opinion poll conducted on the same day, which would solidify Harris’s position as the debate winner if it indicated a favorable performance.

Overall, with nearly $860 million currently wagered on the presidential election, it is clear that the stakes are high. The interplay between public perception, predictive betting markets, and the candidates’ performances will continue to shape the political narrative as the election date approaches.

In conclusion, the debate not only showcased the candidates’ positions on key issues but also highlighted the evolving landscape of political engagement through prediction markets. As voters prepare for the upcoming election, the implications of this debate will resonate in the strategies and policies that candidates choose to emphasize in the coming weeks.