Blockchain bettors on platforms like Polymarket have shown skepticism towards President Biden’s performance in the first debate of the 2024 election cycle. This skepticism has led to a surge in former President Trump’s odds of winning the November election, reaching as high as 67%.
Currently, a contract predicting the outcome of the 2024 election has attracted close to $188 million in bets, with approximately $23 million placed on Trump and $21 million on Biden. Polymarket experienced a brief downtime during the debate due to the overwhelming traffic from interested bettors.
Market sentiment indicates a growing doubt about Biden’s ability to remain in the presidential race until election day. There is a belief that Biden may not be the Democratic nominee, with figures like California governor Gavin Newsom reaching a 17% probability and Michelle Obama at 7%.
During the debate, a contract speculating on whether Biden would drop out of the race saw a significant surge, reaching a 43% likelihood. Meanwhile, trading of PoliFi tokens representing Trump and Biden showed negative trends, with the TRUMP token down 12.5%, the BIDEN token down 34%, and the TREMP token down 10%. The DJT token, associated with Barron Trump, also experienced a 5% decrease.
Despite being a campaign issue for Republicans, crypto was not mentioned during the debate. A Polymarket contract questioning whether Trump would mention crypto or Bitcoin indicated a low probability, peaking at 6%.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was not part of the debate, but a special broadcast featuring his responses to questions asked during the Trump-Biden debate garnered significant attention, with 5.6 million views on social media platforms.