The likelihood of President Biden withdrawing from the race for the White House has reached a record high of 55% on the prediction market platform, Polymarket. This surge in doubts about Biden’s candidacy followed concerns raised by former President Barack Obama regarding Biden’s campaign and recent debate performances. A report by The Washington Post revealed that Barack Obama, while publicly expressing confidence in Biden’s campaign, has privately expressed worries about his reelection prospects after a lackluster debate showing. Obama’s concerns have stirred speculation among political observers and bettors about the future of Biden’s candidacy. With the uncertainty surrounding Biden’s future, bettors are also considering the timeline of a potential withdrawal. Polymarket indicates a 42% chance of Biden dropping out before the Democratic National Convention, which is set for August 19. This uncertainty has prompted discussions among Democratic party leaders about contingency plans in case Biden exits the race. According to reports from The New York Times, party officials have prepared for the scenario of Biden stepping down, leading to a complex process to secure a new nominee. One of the most straightforward options could be nominating Vice President Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, as his successor. This possibility has gained traction among market analysts, with Harris’s odds of becoming the Democratic nominee rising to 31%. The prospect of Harris taking over the Democratic ticket has led to a 13% chance of her winning the presidential election, compared to a 16% chance for Biden, as predicted by Polymarket bettors. As the political landscape continues to evolve, the prediction market on Polymarket has seen substantial activity, with over $211 million wagered on the general presidential election contract and nearly $10 million bet on the scenario of Biden dropping out. The ongoing speculation and betting activity reflect the uncertainties and shifting dynamics in the current election cycle.
President Biden’s Chance of Dropping Out and Potential Successor
14/07/2024
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Explore the speculation surrounding President Biden's chances of dropping out and who his potential successor could be. Dive into the possibilities and implications of this political scenario.
President Biden dropping out has sparked discussions about his potential successor, where Vice President Kamala Harris is also a key fi, with some speculating about a comeback by Barack Obama. Analysts are closely observing the debate performances and strategies at the Democratic National Convention