Following an incident where former U.S. president Donald Trump was injured from a shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania, his probability of retaking the White House reached an all-time high. Traders on Polymarket reported a significant increase in the likelihood of Trump winning the presidency.
A Secret Service spokesman confirmed that Trump was safe after the shooting, which resulted in the death of a suspected gunman and a spectator. Despite the unsettling event, images and videos of Trump defiantly raising his fist with blood on his face circulated on social media.
The incident led to a surge in the ‘Yes’ shares on Polymarket’s contract predicting Trump’s victory, reaching 70 cents, indicating a 70% chance of him prevailing in the upcoming election. This market operates on the Polygon blockchain and settles bets in USDC, a stablecoin.
Additionally, meme tokens related to Trump, such as MAGA and TREMP, experienced significant price increases following the incident, showcasing the impact of the event on various markets.
Amidst these developments, the cryptocurrency market, represented by the CoinDesk 20 index, saw a 3.31% increase. Bitcoin, a prominent player in the market, also rose by 3.26% to $59,735.17. Trump’s vocal support for cryptocurrencies and the Republican Party’s stance on the industry have contributed to the positive sentiment towards crypto.
Polymarket, founded by Shayne Coplan, has witnessed a surge in trading volumes in 2024, especially in political betting leading up to the U.S. election. The platform has seen record-breaking bets on the U.S. presidential winner contract, totaling $252 million.
While prediction markets like PredictIt also reflect a rise in Trump’s odds post-incident, reaching 65 cents, they serve as an alternative indicator of public sentiment compared to traditional polls due to the financial stakes involved, encouraging thorough research and honest opinions.