The likelihood of President Joe Biden withdrawing from the U.S. presidential race has reached a critical point, hitting 68%, which is close to the all-time high of 70%. This increase came after Biden revealed he had tested positive for Covid-19. These statistics are based on bets made on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket. In an interview with BET News, Biden mentioned that he would reassess his candidacy if faced with a significant medical condition. When asked about potential triggers for reevaluation, Biden responded, ‘If I had a medical issue diagnosed by doctors that could impact my ability to serve.’ The odds of Biden dropping out spiked after a debate with Republican candidate Donald Trump, rising from 36% to 70% due to criticism of his performance. Biden attributed his poor showing to jet lag and a demanding travel schedule. Following a series of public statements supporting his candidacy and denials of potential replacements, the probability of Biden withdrawing decreased to 36%. However, fluctuations occurred, including calls from Democratic supporter George Clooney for Biden to step down, which briefly raised the likelihood of withdrawal to 66% before dropping back down. The ongoing cycle of speculation intensified during key events like the Republican National Convention and rumors of a strong running mate pick from Trump’s camp. Biden’s Covid-19 diagnosis further fueled uncertainty about his future in the race. Simultaneously, the chances of Biden dropping out before the Democratic convention, where his nomination would be confirmed, are now at 59%. Polymarket’s national election tracker currently places Trump at 64%, Biden at 12%, and Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, at 19%.
President Biden’s chances in the presidential race
18/07/2024
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Explore the latest analysis and predictions on President Biden's chances in the upcoming presidential race. Stay informed on the dynamics shaping the political landscape.