The odds of Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic nominee for president this year saw a significant increase on Tuesday. Traders on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market platform, observed a more than quadruple rise in the chances of Harris securing the nomination.
At one point, the ‘Yes’ shares in a contract related to Harris winning the nomination traded as high as 31 cents, indicating a 31% likelihood, up from the initial 7% earlier in the day. While the shares slightly decreased to 23 cents later on, the market sentiment showed a growing support for Harris.
Support for Harris
Although President Joe Biden is still the presumptive Democratic nominee, there is a vocal group of supporters advocating for Harris to take the lead. Following Biden’s recent debate performance against Donald J. Trump, calls for Harris to step up have gained momentum.
Rep. James Clyburn stated on television that efforts should be made to bolster Harris, whether in the second place on the ticket or at the top. Various articles and analyses, including one from former Congressman Tim Ryan and The Wall Street Journal, have highlighted Harris as a strong candidate to potentially replace Biden.
Market Trends and Volume
Aside from Polymarket, PredictIt, another prediction market platform, also saw a surge in support for Harris. The trading volume on the Democratic nomination question reached significant levels, with PredictIt’s volume totaling $31 million and Polymarket’s at $75 million.
Despite regulatory differences between the platforms, the market indicators point towards a growing interest in Harris as a potential nominee.
Overall Election Predictions
Polymarket’s largest contract, focusing on the U.S. presidency winner in November, continues to show President Trump as the favorite with a 66% chance of victory. The platform’s recent trading volumes have been noteworthy, signaling an increased engagement in election-related predictions.
Market Reaction and Memes
In response to the developments, KAMA, a meme coin named after Vice President Harris, experienced a rally on Tuesday, doubling in price over 24 hours. This reaction further reflects the market’s response to the shifting dynamics within the Democratic nomination landscape.